Genius Ratings Version 2.0
Computer Ratings for every Indiana High School wrestling team
–presented by Maligned on behalf of Indianamat.com
What are “Genius Ratings”?
Indianamat.com’s “Genius Ratings” are comprehensive computer ratings based on every match result presented in the results section of Indianamat.com’s discussion page, plus many other results gleaned from websites and coaches’ sources. Even matches with out-of-state teams were considered when that team wrestled at least two Indiana opponents.
The “Genius Ratings” are made up of two separate ratings designed to serve two distinctly different purposes. One rating is called POTENTIAL and uses match scores only to rate all teams, disregarding wins and losses. The other rating is called REWARD and uses only wins and losses data, not considering scores at all.
POTENTIAL is specifically designed to be the best possible predictor of future results. It was designed 5 years ago by Maligned and is virtually identical to rating systems currently being incorporated Jeff Sagarin at USA Today, Joe Lunardi at ESPN, baseball analyst Bill James, top Las Vegas odds-makers, and others. This system locks in a team’s true potential by measuring its score differential within the context of its schedule, considering a team’s context to the 100th degree of separation from other teams, if necessary. The difference in rating between your team and another is the expected point differential in a dual meet. Multiply the difference in rating by three to arrive at the expected differential in a full-team individual tournament event. The predictive effect is most useful for teams within about 40 points of each other. (The top teams and bottom teams are separated by impossibly large margins because a top team can beat a good team by 40, which can beat a mid-level team by 40, which can beat a bottom team by 40).
The rating entitled “REWARD” is a more politically correct ranking, designed to slot teams according to only their wins and losses within the context of their schedule. No score results are involved with this ranking at all. Again, teams are measured against others as far away as the 100th degree of separation or beyond if necessary. This ranking is ideologically similar to most of the computer ranking systems currently being used by the BCS in college football. About 5% more results were used for this than for POTENTIAL for various reasons (post-football issues, lack of score information, etc.)
Duals AND Tournament Results Used
All possible results were used for these rankings, including individual tournaments. Analysis shows that in full-team, regular season events, final scores of tournaments are great predictors of which teams would defeat which other teams in dual meets. POTENTIAL considers all score differentials between your team and others at all individual tournaments and divides them by 3. In other words, if Team A defeats Team B by 15 points in a tournament, the score differential is recorded as +5 for Team A, not +15. A win or a loss for finishing ahead or behind a particular opponent at an individual tournament was also incorporated into the REWARD rating. Finally, all individual tournament results are only weighted as being 50% as important as dual meets (except 32-team events, which weight 40% only). For example, you would have to beat a team twice in an individual tournament to receive the same rating benefit as beating them in a dual meet.
Example: Team A finishes 3rd place out of 8 teams in an event and +102 in score against all 7 opponents. Team A’s record is listed as 5-2 against these seven opponents and its POTENTIAL point differential is listed as +34 for these seven separate competitions. Again, all results are then only 50% as important as duals.
Strength of Schedule
The Strength of Schedule (SOS) component listed here is only as accurate and complete as the information we had available. Some SOS ratings are based on 5 or fewer matches for a team. Especially for some of the very small schools at the bottom of the ratings, the SOS rating can be almost completely disregarded.
The Future of the “Genius Ratings”
Indianamat.com plans to update the “Genius Ratings” at least every other week from here on out, sooner if possible.